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Month: June 2016

[Sports] L’adversaire des bleus en 8èmes

[Sports] L’adversaire des bleus en 8èmes

Après la première place du groupe acquise par l’équipe de France, Baptiste Desprez de Sport24 se demandait aujourd’hui quel est l’adversaire le plus probable pour les Bleus en huitièmes. Ça tombe bien, on dispose d’un modèle capable de calculer des probabilités pour les matches de l’Euro. Je vous laisse lire l’article de Sport24 si vous voulez comprendre toutes les subtilités concoctées par l’UEFA pour ce premier Euro à 24. Nous, on va se contenter de faire tourner le modèle pour obtenir…

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[Sampling] Talk at INSPS – Avignon

[Sampling] Talk at INSPS – Avignon

I’m in the beautiful city of Avignon for the 3rd ISNPS conference, which is held in the extroardinary Palace of the Popes Convention center. I’ve been invited by Ricardo Cao to give a talk wednesday morning during on sampling methods for big graphs. Sampling methods for graphs from Antoine Rebecq

[Sports] UEFA Euro 2016 predictions – Comments

[Sports] UEFA Euro 2016 predictions – Comments

Last week we published the results of our prediction model for UEFA Euro 2016. Here are a few comments. This Euro is undecided Our model gives fairly close probabilities of winning. To us, this suggests that the competition is fairly open and that no team is a clear favorite before the competition starts (we really hope to see that change after a few matches!) One could object that this merely shows that our model is unable to predict an outcome…

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[Sports] UEFA Euro 2016 Predictions – Model

[Sports] UEFA Euro 2016 Predictions – Model

Today we’re launching our own predictions for UEFA Euro 2016 that starts next week. A model for football: state of the art There are many ways to build a model to predict football results. The Elo ranking system is commonly used. As it name indicates, it relies on a ranking of the international football teams, either the official FIFA ratings (which are widely known as poorly predictive of a team’s strength) or a custom made Elo ranking. A few Elo…

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